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Executive Summary (Continued)

Finally, Section 5 explores the future of genome engineering and design by considering four scenarios, each of which is based on different assumptions about key factors and events that could shape the future evolution of the technology and its integration and application in economic systems. Figure 1-3 summarizes the building blocks used to build the scenarios, the driving forces, predetermined elements, major uncertainties and prime movers that characterize the system. Using these “scenario elements,” we develop plausible scenario stories that explore a range of different outcomes. Figure 1-4 illustrates the key assumptions that define the scenarios.

Figure 1-3: The Scenario Elements

Four types of scenario elements set the context for the scenarios: driving forces, critical uncertainties, predetermined elements, and prime movers.

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