Thinking Ahead: 

Anticipating Early Impacts of an Avian Influenza Pandemic

Bio Economic Research Associates invites your participation in a rapid response, multi-client service on the economic implications and business impacts of a pandemic influenza outbreak.  This multi-client service will concentrate on possible event trajectories in the first few months of a global influenza pandemic, how governments and major corporations may respond, and the global financial and business implications.

Purposes of the Service

• To increase understanding of the business and economic impacts and challenges posed by an influenza pandemic
  
• To decrease the possibilities for poor decision-making due to bad information, ignorance and fear or panic
  
• To identify, in advance, key implications for business and industry, financial markets, governments, and investors
  
• To generate new insights, recommendations, and public/private alliances to improve preparedness by the global community

Under the leadership and direction of bio-era Managing Director, James Newcomb, the service will deliver independent, expert research and timely analysis on developments regarding avian influenza, including highly plausible scenarios for the evolution of a pandemic outbreak, how governments, major corporations, and public health agencies and the public are likely to respond, and the implications of each scenario for specific industries and the global economy, including cross-border trade, travel, and investment. 

Key questions to be answered:

The service is designed to help stakeholders address the following questions:

• What key indicators and signposts should the business community be watching with respect to pandemic influenza?
  
• If human transmissible H5N1 broke out in Asia, what specific actions (travel advisories, quarantines, travel restrictions, etc.) should we expect to be implemented by governments and public health authorities?
  
• How would these actions impact regional and global economies, and businesses operating within and/or interconnected with, affected regions?
  
• How would these developments affect investors and financial markets?

Who will benefit from this research?

By using scenarios to describe the kinds of events that might unfold in conjunction with a pandemic flu outbreak and their economic implications, this multi-client effort is designed to assist a wide range of individuals and participating organizations in their preparedness and response strategy and planning.  These include:

• Corporate planning managers from major companies with significant market exposure to trade and economic disruptions
• Risk managers and assessors
• Crisis management & response professionals
• Financial and market analysts and investors
• Goverment officials and agencies

Contents:

Avian Influenza and the Risk of a Global Pandemic

Public health experts, including those from the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, are warning that the threat of a global influenza pandemic is greater than ever. Recent events in Asia have created what some experts warn could be a “perfect storm” of circumstances that increase the risk that an influenza pandemic will emerge. These circumstances include the endemic spread of avian influenza in domestic and wild waterfowl and poultry populations, the continued rapid change and evolution of the virus, and the growing numbers of human cases of H5N1 infection.

According to WHO officials, recent epidemiological and laboratory studies suggest that the virus “may be evolving in ways that increasingly favor the start of a pandemic.” The virus has reportedly become hardier, surviving several days longer in the environment than earlier strains. It has also expanded its range into new hosts, including migratory birds, humans, pigs, and cats.

If a pandemic flu emerges, the shock waves sent through the global economy would be immediate and far-reaching. The SARS outbreak in 2002–2003, which according to bio-era estimates may have caused economic damages upwards of $50 billion, provides the most recent reference point for understanding the implications for businesses and economic systems, and the speed with which some reactions are likely to take place. And, though the SARS event was significant, an influenza pandemic would likely have much more severe consequences.

Biology and Borders: Bio-era Expertise

Human disease risks fall in the context of, and are linked to, a broader range of biological systems and biosecurity risks that have been the focus of bio-era research and analysis activities over the past two years. (See bio-era reports, “Biology and Borders: SARS and the New Economics of Biosecurity,” May 2003, and “Avian Flu: Evolving New Responses to Emerging Diseases,” Feb 2004.)

This multi-client service will extend bio-era's foundation of work on the potential economic and business consequences of emerging infectious diseases to the urgent case of a possible Avian Influenza pandemic.

Process: Virtual Collaboration Across the Globe

To fully enable global participation in all aspects of the service, we will utilize bio-era's web-based collaborative infrastructure. Enrolled participants will be invited to establish their own individual password protected membership in a secure on-line bio-era workspace established specifically for the service (the bio-era Avian Flu Node). The workspace will enable participants to collaborate both individually, and as a group, share documents, participate in threaded group discussion, and contact members of the bio-era staff via individual e-mail.

E-mail alerts (controlled by each participant individually) will keep all participants up-to-date on service developments. Should a participant want to pursue a specific issue or question of particular interest, a separate workspace can instantly be created upon request to bio-era for private collaboration between the participant and bio-era staff and experts. The bio-era Avian Flu Node is designed to support collaborative contributions and information exchange among the study participants in response to rapidly changing developments, while keeping all service deliverables organized and accessible.

The Multi-Client Service also provides:

• Participation in Monthly bio-era web-briefings and teleconferences providing our analysis and findings, along with commentary from outside experts. These teleconferences are designed to promote dialogue among participants about potential implications of, and responses to, possible events.
• Electronic delivery of special Issue Alerts with bio-era analysis as warranted.
• Access to bio-era staff and experts and online information sharing via the secure information infrastructure of the bio-era Network.
• Access to bio-era's "living library" of key research and web resources on the Avian Flu issue—and the ability to interact with bio-era and others around these resources -- to ask follow-up questions or suggest further research into your areas of interest.
• Written bio-era Scenarios Report discussing the implications.
  

OPTIONAL: On-Site Presentation of the study results and conclusions by bio-era principals.*

*(Additional fee required -- travel and related presentation expenses not included in the enrollment fee, and are charged separately at cost plus administration.)

Service Timetable

The service runs quarterly, and renews automatically in the absence of alternative client instructions.  All enrolled clients will receive renewal letters for continuation of the service through the end of following quarter.

Enrollment

Fees for participation in the multi-client study (U.S. Dollars):

• $ 6,000 for large commercial organizations;
• $ 4,500 for non-profit agencies and research institutions;

Additional fees for optional on-site presentation or private on-line collaborative workspaces available upon request.

Click here to enroll or get more info.

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